Application of the cumulative theory of prospectuses to identify the degree of risk solutions in the implementation of high-tech innovation projects

  • Alexey M. Zarechensky Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.
  • Alexander S. Novikov Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.
Keywords: application of cumulative prospectus theory, innovative high-tech projects, Kaneman-Tverski function, optimization methods, risk level analysis.

Abstract

This article is devoted to the peculiarities of the application of cumulative theory of prospectuses to identify the degree of risk decisions in the implementation of projects in the field of high-tech innovations. In the theoretical part of the article, the authors note that obtaining an assessment of the degree of efficiency of investments in various large innovative projects is a rather laborious and complex process, in which a special place should be given to the analysis of the risk of the investments themselves. As an effective way to assess the level of risk present in the implementation of innovative projects, the authors of the article study the cumulative theory of the prospectuses, based on the theories of utility and management decision making, created by Daniel Kaneman and Amos Tversky. Furthermore, the authors underline that if the administrative decision is accepted in the conditions of uncertainty, it should necessarily consider various psychological factors in comparison with classical models of decision-makin, which are constructed on conditions of the maximum availability of the information. In the research part of article, the authors consider a way of an estimation of integral risks of innovative projects. In the final part of article, the authors come to the conclusions that the algorithm of an estimation of risks of innovative projects should obligatory include, not only an expert estimation at an initial stage, but also the subsequent adjustment of the values received after the decision taken regarding the optimization problems.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Alexey M. Zarechensky, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.

PhD in Economic Sciences, Docent of Department of Economic Theory, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.

Alexander S. Novikov, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.

Master Student, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia.

References

Abdikeev, N. M., Bogachev, Yu. S., & Bekulova, S. R. (2019). Institutional mechanisms for ensuring a scientific and technological breakthrough in the Russian economy. Management Sciences, 9(1), 6-19.

Abdullaev, A. R., Mylnikov, L. A., & Vasilieva, E. E. (2012). Risks in innovative projects: causes of emergence, integrated risks, risk appraisal of projects. Economic analysis: theory and practice, 40, 41-49.

Ananyin, V. I., Zimin, K. V., Lugachev, M. I, Gimranov, R. D., & Skriprin, K. G. (2018). Digital organization: Transformation into the new reality. Business Informatics, 2(44), 45-54.

Astapov, K. L. (2005). Features of the development of economic systems in modern conditions. Bulletin of Moscow University. Series: Economics, 4, 65-85.

Babkin, A. V. (2018). Digital economy and Industry 4.0. New challenges. Scientific works of the scientific and practical conference with international participation. St. Petersburg: Polytechnic University Press.

Dmitriev, O. N., & Novikov, S. V. (2019). Concept of state management doctrine. Amazonia Investiga, 8(22), 238-246.

Dmitriev, O. N., & Novikov, S. V. (2019). Verification of Feasibility Studies at High-Technology Enterprises. Russian Engineering Research, 39(9), 780-781.

Drogobytsky, L. N. (2018). Behavioral economics: the essence and stages of formation. Strategic decisions and risk management, 1, 26-31.

Isaychenkova, V. V. (2019). Ensuring the competitiveness of an industrial enterprise in a digital economy. Century of quality, 2, 91–105.

Kiseleva, V. A., & Begashev, D. A. (2014). Risk assessment of innovative projects. Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Series: Economics and Management, 8(4), 55-60.

Kolosova, V. V., Sazonov, A. A., & Vnuchkov, Yu. A. (2018). Study of the main components of the innovative potential of a machine-building enterprise at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. Bulletin of Moscow State Regional University. Series: Economics, 3, 87-93.

Kovalev, V. I., & Konoreva, T. V. (2015). An objective look at the innovation process and investment in innovative projects. Bulletin of the Omsk University, 1(75), 102-105.

Kuntsman, A. A. (2018). Building an effective enterprise architecture as a necessary condition for adaptation to the digital economy, Issues of innovative economy, 8(4), 753-770.

Novikov, S. V., & Veas Iniesta, D. S. (2019). Analysis of development trends in the innovation industry of the Russian Federation. Amazonia Investiga, 8(19), 298-307.

Pinkovetskaia, I. S., Balynin, I. V., & Berezina, N. V. (2019). Assessment of specialization of early stage entrepreneurs in different countries in 2018. Amazonia Investiga, 8(22), 69-75.

Rakhimova, S. A., Kunanbaeva, K. B., & Goncharenko, L. P. (2019). Development of innovation-oriented entrepreneurial structures. Economic systems, 12(3), 84-96.

Romanova, O. A., Akberdina, V. V., & Bukhvalov, N. Yu. (2016). Common values in the formation of the modern technical and economic paradigm. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast, 3(45), 173-190.

Rukinov, M. V. (2020) Vectors of technological transformations and prospects for the safe development of the Russian economy in the context of a new technological structure. News of St. Petersburg State University of Economics, 1(121), 7-15.

Sazonov, A. A., Mikhailova, L. V., & Kolosova, V. V. (2017). The market value of the capital of an enterprise as the basis for the implementation of its competitive strategy in the conditions of innovative development. Bulletin of Moscow Regional State University. Series: Economics, 4, 118-125.

Skripkin, K. G. (2017). How environment influences on organizational design of educational institution: analytical instruments. Modern Information Technologies and IT Education, 12(3), 225-236.
Published
2020-06-26
Section
Articles